Abdul El-Sayed is telling donors he will beat Mike Rogers by seven points. In Detroit, however, the voters he needs for that margin are still deciding whether he has earned it.
A primary he won, and a city he lost
The Democratic nominee won Michigan’s Senate primary in August by a single point. In the city itself, he lost by 28. A Washington Post survey later found a split. About 83 percent of Black voters wanted Democrats to hold the Senate. Only 67 percent, by contrast, said they would back El-Sayed. That gap is not a rounding error.
Black voters make up roughly 11 to 12 percent of the Michigan electorate. Jewish voters, the group interviewers ask him about in nearly every national interview, are closer to 2 percent. As a result, Democrats have no statewide path that skips Detroit.
The 2024 protest, still in the room
Some of the reluctance dates to 2024. El-Sayed backed the “uncommitted” campaign. It urged Democrats to withhold a primary vote from Joe Biden over U.S. support for Israel after the October 7 Hamas attacks and the war in Gaza. Many Black Democrats, in turn, experienced that protest as a blow to Kamala Harris on her way to losing the state.
At Fellowship Chapel this fall, the grievance came up before he spoke. He was with Black women faith leaders in the Woman Difference Collaborative. The moderator put it on the table first. His answer drew on Civil Rights history. He also mentioned a friend who had lost relatives in Gaza. The protest, he argued, was meant to force a change in course. He noted, too, that he endorsed Harris the day Biden left the race.
Nine women then prayed over him. Monica G. Anthony had voted for Haley Stevens. Afterward, she left saying she thought he was the person. That is one room. It is not, however, the city.
What happened on Southfield and Paul
The harder problem is older than the primary, and it has a street address. On the night of September 12, in the Warrendale neighborhood near the Dearborn line, an 18-year-old driver allegedly ran a red light. The crash hit a car driven by Susan Glass-Smith, a Black Detroit woman. Black groups are still demanding that prosecutors treat what followed as a crime, not an unfortunate spat.
Glass-Smith and her attorneys, Johnny Hawkins and former judge Vonda Evans, describe a crowd of as many as 70 or 80 men. They described the men as Arab. According to their account, the group gathered at Southfield and Paul. The allegations include slurs, threats, a spiked bat, tampering with the scene, and items taken from her vehicle. Detroit police then released video of a man using the n-word. In it, he screamed that he would attack her if she left.
Footage, a confrontation, and a demand
New Era Detroit, a local Black advocacy group, posted footage. The group said the Arab men had violated a Black woman. After the event occurred, they confronted Arab and Muslim community leaders and demanded accountability.
Wayne County Prosecutor Kym Worthy charged the other driver with two misdemeanors for failing to stop. Her office, however, denied a warrant request for a 20-year-old man at the scene, citing insufficient evidence. Worthy then asked police to dig further. Hawkins has asked for hate-crime charges. In a joint statement, Council Member Denzel McCampbell, Police Commissioner Victoria Camille, state Reps. Stephanie Young and Alabas Farhat, and Rep. Rashida Tlaib called the incident unacceptable. They also stressed that it was not an assault by an entire community, and they pledged “transformative dialogue.” For the groups demanding charges, the attitudes expressed by Glass-Smith’s alleged assailants are not anecdotal and reflect a real rift between the two communities.
A misdemeanor, a denied warrant, a joint statement
Wayne County Prosecutor Kym Worthy charged the other driver with two misdemeanors for failing to stop. Her office, however, denied a warrant request for a 20-year-old man at the scene, citing insufficient evidence. Worthy then asked police to dig further. Hawkins, for his part, has asked for hate-crime charges.
Council Member Denzel McCampbell, Police Commissioner Victoria Camille, state Reps. Stephanie Young and Alabas Farhat, and Rep. Rashida Tlaib issued a joint statement. They called the incident unacceptable. They also stressed that it was not an assault by an entire community, and they pledged “transformative dialogue.” For the groups demanding charges, the attitudes Glass-Smith’s alleged assailants expressed are not anecdotal. Those attitudes, they say, reflect a real rift between the two communities.
“Why would I vote for an Arab?”
That rift is the one El-Sayed keeps receiving, and he has only partly answered it. At an August press conference, for example, a man shouted that an Arab candidate would not care about Black people. State House candidate Kimberly Fisher later warned him that voters in her district were blunt: “Why would I vote for an Arab? Arabs don’t like us.” She told him she was already seeing John James and Mike Rogers signs “in the hood.” The fix, she said, was to plant himself in those neighborhoods and speak against bad practices by some Arab business owners.
On WDET, he has said Arab and Muslim Michiganders cannot object to racism against themselves while tolerating it against Black neighbors.
CNN panelist Ron Brownstein expressed the same concern, speaking from his experience in a Detroit-area Black church. “I was in a black church in Detroit… and the minister excoriated El-Sayed,” he said.
On CNN, Ron Brownstein points out that Abdul El-Sayed had a serious problem: “I was in a Black church in Detroit… and the minister excoriated El-Sayed, said he was more concerned about Gaza than about Detroit.”
Abdul deserves this criticism. https://t.co/BNCTc4Fnrr
— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) October 7, 2026
Seven points, and a phone that did not ring
The campaign’s confidence has not helped. CNN, for instance, reported Black leaders who came away thinking El-Sayed does not believe he has to work for their vote. One leader was left off a promised roundtable, then met with Rogers, texted the Democrat, got silence, and ended at an expletive.
Lansing’s Democratic mayor, Andy Schor, said that a month from Election Day El-Sayed still had not called. Schor also said he could not back the nominee before a conversation about El-Sayed’s stance toward Jewish Michiganders and toward Israel. El-Sayed’s reply is that he has shown up and listened. Furthermore, he says he is the Democrat Michiganders want, even if party leaders wanted someone else. He thought he would crush Stevens. Instead, he beat her by one point.
Detroit, October 24
Obama will campaign in Detroit on October 24. The church prayer may travel. Meanwhile, police have not closed the Warrendale case. Prosecutors, likewise, have not charged the man on the video. In the end, a slice of the Black electorate is not yet willing to hand that seat to Abdul El-Sayed.
